Posted by:S. G. Raja Sekharan
Before I share my views, here is my recent stock ROI
Quite a few readers are having these questions in their mind - so I thought to share it as an FAQ
Will the markets go up from here or will it go down?
In the near term – I am not sure of where the markets will go.
But if you take the next 3-5 years – I believe that the markets will go up. Indians are now exposed to internet and TV and are aspiring for more and demanding a better life. The politicians understand this and know that they need to perform to keep their jobs. The govt is pushing difficult reforms and a developement agenda just to stay in power. This is a fundamental change and will shape the political discourse in the coming decade.
India’s large middle class and rural population is also consuming more and more.
Globally too, the US and EU economies are doing better. Middle east is a source of concern and can have an impact – but oil prices will not go up dangerously (to 80-100 USD a barrel) due to shale gas and renewable energy revolutions.
So the long term trend of our economy is an upward movement - the Sensex may have bad months and good months, but the overall trend will be upward.
How much will the markets go up per annum?
In the coming 3-5 years, I expect India to have an inflation of around 5% and GDP growth of around 7%. The Sensex should grow at 5% + 7% = 12% per annum just to mirror the corporate growth - it could grow higher than 12% due to the prevailing optimism.
How much will I make?
You can look at your own past stock picking history and see how much you out-perform Sensex. If you beat Sensex by, let’s say, 5%, then you should be able to do a 17% ROI.
How can I help
Just send me your portfolio details – and I can share my views.